This has got to be one of the most mind-blowing theories/predictions I’ve ever come across. I find myself almost completely agreeing with Mr. Ray Kurzweil’s logic. Before I continue with this article, let me warn you. This is about the rise of “machine consciousness” and the eventual machine race. Now hold on a minute. I know what you’re thinking, “WTF is he talking about?!” In blatant vernacular, I can put it as The Matrix, Terminator, & I, Robot all in one coming to fruition in our lifetime and its called The Singularity. Check it out.
Basic synopsis: The Singularity is when machine intelligence surpasses human intelligence. In practical terms that means by 2045, $1000 will buy you a computer a billion times more intelligent than every human on Earth combined. In philosophical talk, Irving John Good put it best when he said this in 1965:
“Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make.”
And before you go off thinking I’m just another evangelical artificial intelligence radical, just look at the people supporting Mr. Kurzweil’s opinions and life work. Pete Worden (Director of NASA Ames), Dr. Peter Diamandis (Chairman and CEO of the X PRIZE Foundation), , Dr. Robert Richards (co-founder of International Space University and ISU President), Dr. Michael Simpson, and numerous sponsors like Google, Yahoo!, NASA, and a few others have founded the Singularity University (A not-so-typical graduate school where students and professors can study programs ranging from “Future Studies and Forecasting” to “Nanotechnology” to “Policy, Law, and Ethics”) based off of this one man’s views. On top of having a graduate school made in his concept’s honor, Bill Gates calls him “the best person I know at predicting the future of artificial intelligence.” Not enough for you? Let me vouch for him too.
I read The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology
Simply put, this graph shows that for $1000 I could get a computer with the equivalent processing power of an insect in the year 2000, a mouse in 2010, a human in 2020, and ALL humans in 2045. How does it advance so quickly? Well, one reason is Moore’s Law which states the number of transistors on a microchip doubles about every 2 years. Intel co-founder Gordon Moore’s prediction has stayed relevant and accurate for the past 40 years and although we are approaching the physical limitations of shrinking a transistor and microchip (Some of the parts of the transistor are only 10 atoms thick in some cases), there are a multitude of different technologies being developed to continue this record track of exponential progress.
What makes Kurzweil’s predictions slightly more controversial is that he extends the idea of Moore’s Law to the entirety of evolution. It’s called the Law of Accelerating Returns. He talks about it in depth on his website. But here’s another graph to show you what I mean. Although all his research and explanations for his theories are cool, what does is mean for us? From what I understand, AWESOMENESS!
However, everything I’ve talked about so far only incorporates the hardware aspect. Yeah, in 2025 I might have a computer that can compute as fast as my brain, but without the right software, the thing is still just going to be a stupid computer. So how do we make it smart? Simple. Reverse engineer the brain. We’ve already begun taking such measures by using MRI scans to map our brains and watch different activities. As our technologies increase, these tools will only become more accurate and powerful. Eventually we’ll completely understand how our brain functions and be able to write a software program that can simulate brain function on a transistor based architecture. Only then will I be able to purchase an “artificial brain” as a $1000 laptop.
I found this website Benefits of the Singularity where it lists a whole bunch of practical applications of Singularity technologies. Here’s a list of my favorites cut & pasted from the site:
- PERFECT MANAGEMENT OF SOCIETY
SAI (Super-human artificial intelligence) would allow the management of society without conflicts of interest, flawed judgment, lack of information, or political considerations.
- ASSEMBLER NANOBOT
Assembler nanobots are molecular scale machines that can make anything from individual atoms in accordance with a design supplied by an external computer. - ABUNDANCE ECONOMY
Mature molecular nanotechnology will result in the production of any product at the cost of the raw materials, such as a computer for the price of a bag of sand. Production will be rapid and quantities unlimited. Quality will be perfect down to the atomic level. All material want will be easily satisfied. - NO LABOR
All physical labor will performed by robots. All intellectual labor including creative, artistic, and scientific, will be performed by intelligent software. There will be nothing that a human can do for profit that a machine can not do cheaper and better. - IMMORTALITY
You can be bio-engineered to be, practically, immortal. Age will mean nothing to you and accidental death won’t be nearly as great a risk as it is today as your body will be more resistant and resilient to all but the most grave injuries. Death will still be possible but it will be a rare occurrence related to extreme physical destruction of your body and never the result of disease or aging. - UPLOADING
Uploading, the process of changing the material substrate of your mind from the biological neuron based architecture to a computer transistor based architecture. The biological substrate is evolutionarily designed. The computer substrate is intelligently designed. - COLLECTIVE BEINGS
People will be able to combine mind, body, and soul with as many others as they choose. - ARTIFICIAL PEOPLE
Whether copies of real people or designed from scratch, artificial people will stretch the boundaries of our civilization.
Pretty crazy right? There is so much information on this topic that there is no way I can write about it all. There is a movie coming out late 2009 about it. Maybe I’ll post something then to remind you to take a look. For now, byte it dumb PC’s.
Here are a few links of interest:
The Singularity
Kurzweil’s Futurist Website
Singularity University
No, I’m not talking about Bruce Willis or Haley Osment in that 1999 flick with that awesome twist at the end (Yeah, I loved it). I’m talking about the brainchild of Pranav Mistry, Dr. Pattie Maes, and Liyan Chang in the Fluid Interfaces Group over at the MIT Media Lab. Just so you can be on the same page as me, here’s the video I saw back in March.
Cool, right? Now, let’s go over that again. The SixthSense prototype is comprised of a pocket projector, a mirror, a camera, and a mobile computing device placed in the wearer’s pocket (Still needs an iPod or at the very least a Pandora app. if you ask me) all for $350. That seems like a bargain, right? Think again. Although retail price will most likely go down when its finally put into production, carriers will inflate the price right back up to something in the ball park of $600/year ($50/month) for a data plan. However, that’s only if SixthSense chooses to keep the phone. If they don’t, then this device is just going to be a thousand times cooler than the iTouch.
Nonetheless, being able to use any surface and have the camera track any hand gesture I make and understand it is pretty remarkable. Draw an “@” symbol, have my email pop up. Frame my hands like a gestural camera, “CLICK!”, picture taken. Trace a circle on my wrist, 5:15PM. Here’s another video which takes you on a “day-in-the-life” with SixthSense.
But there are some features that seem absolutely incredible but I just don’t think they’ll happen. For example, the newspaper. No newspaper is going to free up that much space to make a projection screen for videos. They hold their column-width very dearly. If you’ve ever placed an Ad in one, you know exactly what I’m talking about. Plus in this recession, newspapers have been hurt pretty badly. Who knows where the whole industry is heading. All I know is that I’d much rather have my SixthSense project my reader with all my favorite RSS feeds and show me relevant videos to those topics!
Another feature is the projection of information about people on the people themselves! Frankly, that’s just rude. At least allow me to sneakily take a picture and then ask about them later. I mean, imagine if I ever came across the kid from “Greatest Freak Out Ever” (If you haven’t seen the video, YouTube it yourself. I refuse to further his humiliation by sharing the video.) I wouldn’t want that video to just pop up and start playing! Utterly embarrassing.
In the end, it’s a great idea and a great product. If this actually makes it into production within the next 5-7 years, it will most definitely revolutionize the way we interact with our surroundings. That said, byte it iTouch.
If you decide you want to know more about SixthSense and the team (Pranav, Pattie, and Liyan) then here are a few links to explore.
SixthSense Project
Pranav Mistry’s Website
Dr. Pattie Mae’s MIT Bio
Liyan Chang’s Website
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